The Arrowbear Lake housing market,
measured honestly
I track every listing outcome in Arrowbear Lake through CRMLS. Not just the sales that closed. The listings that expired, got cancelled, or were quietly withdrawn. These numbers include the other half of the story.
Updated June 27, 2026 at 9:28 AM Pacific · refreshes hourly
Supply
Trailing 3 Years
Sold Homes
Original Asking
A note on sample size. Arrowbear Lake is a small market. These numbers come from 133 tracked outcomes, so a handful of sales can swing them more than they would in a larger city. I publish them anyway because they are real, but read them with that in mind.
What these numbers mean
Balanced Market. Arrowbear Lake currently carries 4.1 months of supply, inventory leaning toward sellers. That figure is the current active inventory of 11 homes divided by the trailing 90-day sales pace. Under four months favors sellers. Over eight favors buyers.
The number nobody else publishes. Over the last three years, 33.9% of Arrowbear Lake listings that reached an outcome did not sell. They expired, were cancelled, or were withdrawn. That is 41 failed listings next to 80 closed sales, out of 133 tracked outcomes. Mountain communities are micromarkets, and pricing a home here against the wrong comps is how listings join the failed column.
Speed and price. Homes that sold in Arrowbear Lake took an average of 67 days to close, and sellers who closed received 93.8% of their original asking price on average.
Straight answers
- Is Arrowbear Lake a buyer's market or a seller's market right now?
- As of the latest hourly refresh, Arrowbear Lake is a balanced market with 4.1 months of supply, inventory leaning toward sellers. Under four months generally favors sellers and over eight favors buyers.
- What percentage of Arrowbear Lake listings fail to sell?
- Over the trailing three years, 33.9% of Arrowbear Lake listings that reached an outcome expired, were cancelled, or were withdrawn without selling. That is 41 failed listings against 80 closed sales.
- How current is this data?
- It refreshes hourly from CRMLS data through the Sell Odds engine, which tracks both sold and unsold outcomes. Most sites only count the sales that closed.
The story behind the numbers
If you want the story, read my Arrowbear Lake area guide. If you want to know the odds that a specific home sells at a specific price, that is what the Sell Odds Crystal Ball does. It scores a price against real sold and unsold outcomes instead of guessing from averages.
Search Arrowbear Lake homes Read the Arrowbear Lake guideLet's talk about your move
I work these communities every day, and my probability engine, Sell Odds, tracks every sold and unsold outcome, so you can make better informed decisions. No other agent on the mountain can provide that. Guaranteed.